Nigeria could experience shortages of rice, tomatoes and other staple foods over the next three months due to declining agricultural production, insecurity and rising logistics costs, according to the Organisation for Technology Advancement of Cold Chain in West Africa (OTACCWA).
The organisation’s president, Alexander Isong, who also serves as Nigeria’s Country Director for the World Agriculture Forum, raised the concern during an interview in Lagos on Sunday.
He warned that the anticipated drop in food supply could trigger another wave of food inflation, placing additional pressure on households already struggling with high food prices.
According to Isong, rice production is expected to decline by about six per cent to 8.3 million tonnes, while the area under cultivation may shrink by seven per cent to 4.2 million hectares.
He noted that figures from the United States Department of Agriculture also indicate a five per cent year-on-year decline in rice production, adding that tomatoes are likely to face similar supply challenges.
He explained that reduced cultivation and lower harvests would significantly affect the availability of food in major markets across the country.
Isong said tomato shortages could continue until the late harvest period expected in October, while maize, sorghum and millet may also experience supply constraints because of reduced planting in 2025.
He further highlighted the sharp rise in transportation costs, revealing that moving one tonne of grain from Kano to Lagos now costs about N70,000, compared to N45,000 previously. On some routes, transport charges have doubled or even tripled, while higher energy costs have compounded the problem.
He added that onions and peppers are already becoming scarce in key producing areas, resulting in sudden increases in market prices.
The OTACCWA president also projected that Nigeria would continue relying heavily on imported wheat, with imports expected to reach about 7.2 million tonnes.
He identified insecurity, falling production, weak supply chains and inadequate storage facilities as major factors threatening the country’s food supply.
According to him, persistent attacks and displacement of farmers in northern Nigeria have disrupted farming activities and reduced agricultural output.
He stressed that restoring security in major food-producing areas is essential to enable farmers to return safely to their farms and increase production.
Isong also called for lower transportation costs through improved rural road networks, expanded rail freight services for agricultural produce and more efficient logistics systems.
Although the agricultural sector recorded stronger GDP growth in the first quarter of 2026, he said the improvement has not translated into increased food availability because production gains continue to be eroded by post-harvest losses, insecurity and reduced cultivation.
He warned that without urgent intervention, consumers could continue to face shortages of rice, tomatoes, peppers, onions and other staple foods, accompanied by renewed price increases.
To prevent the looming shortages, Isong urged the Federal Government, state governments, private investors and development partners to work together on practical solutions.
He recommended reducing post-harvest losses, which he said currently account for between 30 and 50 per cent of perishable produce, while also accelerating the distribution of improved seeds, fertilisers, irrigation support and affordable credit ahead of the 2026/2027 planting season.
He further advocated greater investment in aggregation centres, cold storage facilities, processing plants and produce markets located close to farming communities.
Isong also appealed to private investors to expand cold chain infrastructure, food processing and contract farming through accessible financing.
He called for stronger collaboration among governments, farmer cooperatives, commodity associations, logistics companies and development partners to monitor food supplies and improve distribution nationwide.
According to him, Nigeria produces enough food in many sectors, but a significant portion is lost before reaching consumers. He maintained that reducing post-harvest losses, improving logistics, securing farming communities and supporting farmers would help stabilise food supplies and ease pressure on food prices.
Nigeria May Face Rice, Tomato Scarcity in Next Three Months — OTACCWA
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