The African Development Bank has warned that an expected “super” El Niño weather event could cost African countries between $10 billion and $20 billion, cut economic growth and force millions of people to leave their homes.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern caused by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Although it begins thousands of kilometres away from Africa, it changes global weather patterns, often bringing severe drought to some parts of the continent and heavy rainfall and flooding to others.
Speaking to Reuters, the bank’s Director for Climate Change and Green Growth, Anthony Nyong, said countries most affected by the extreme weather could see their Gross Domestic Product decline “by between 1 and 2 per cent on average.”
Nyong said the worsening climate conditions would threaten food and water supplies, damage infrastructure and place additional pressure on government finances, especially as many countries are already struggling with debt.
He explained that governments often divert money meant for “health, education and infrastructure projects to respond to climate disasters,” creating what he described as a “climate finance trap.”
The AfDB had projected in May that Africa’s economy would grow by 4.2 per cent in 2026 and 4.4 per cent in 2027, assuming global geopolitical tensions ease. However, those projections were made before the latest warnings of a possible “super” El Niño.
The previous El Niño event between 2023 and 2024 caused severe drought across parts of Africa, leading to poor harvests, rising food prices and record sea-level increases along the continent’s coastline.
The AfDB estimates that African farmers have already lost about $330 million in income this year because of climate-related impacts, while the fishing sector is also expected to suffer as warmer sea temperatures reduce fish stocks.
Nyong said Africa’s climate adaptation funding needs, previously estimated at about $50 billion annually, “could now rise to as much as $100 billion because of the expected strength of the El Niño event.”
He added that the bank was preparing to review its projects in September and could restructure investments to help affected countries. The AfDB also plans to work with international climate funds, including the Green Climate Fund, the Adaptation Fund and other financing mechanisms, to mobilise additional support.
Nyong warned that countries such as Sudan, South Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Somalia, Mali, Burundi and Nigeria could face particularly severe humanitarian challenges, including food shortages and displacement.
He said maize prices “could double in some areas, increasing pressure on vulnerable communities and triggering large-scale migration as people search for food, water and safer living conditions.”
He stressed that investing in climate resilience before disasters occur would be far cheaper than paying for recovery afterwards.
“It is cheaper to build a fence around a precipice than to pay for expensive ambulances to wait at the bottom for people to fall,” Nyong said. “So let’s build a fence.”
Oil prices slide, Shettima lauds AfDB-REA-SAPZ energy deal
Meanwhile, oil prices fell sharply yesterday as traders reacted positively to a pause in hostilities between the United States and Iran, easing fears of further disruptions to global crude supplies through the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent crude, Nigeria’s benchmark, dropped 9 per cent to below $88 a barrel during early trading, reversing much of last week’s gains when prices briefly surged to $100 a barrel following attacks by the Iran-backed Houthis on Saudi Arabian oil tankers in the Red Sea.
Vice President Kashim Shettima has also applauded the collaboration among the AfDB, the Rural Electrification Agency and the Special Agro-Industrial Processing Zones programme aimed at boosting affordable energy in the centres scattered across the country.
He spoke yesterday in Abuja during the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding between REA and SAPZ for the provision of affordable energy in all the SAPZ sites across the country. The agreement covers joint assessment, technical assistance, and energy deployment across the SAPZ sites under REA’s Desert To Power programme.
Shettima, represented by the Deputy Chief of Staff to the President, Senator Ibrahim Hadejia, said the federal government “welcomed the partnership and will encourage more collaborations that will help unlock the country’s potentials across all sectors but particularly in the agricultural sector.”
Minister of Agriculture, Senator Abubakar Kyari, said the collaboration “was commendable and was the beginning of greater achievements in the agricultural sector given the potential for growth.”
He expressed optimism that the SAPZ, when fully operationalised, “will address numerous challenges confronting farmers and other stakeholders in the agricultural sector.”
Managing Director of REA, Abba Aliyu, said the organisation has “424 completed mini-grid electrification projects and 693 others ongoing across the country.”
He said the targeted impact of the proposed partnership under the SAPZ programme is “25,000 households, 13 health facilities and directly impacting over 103,000 persons in each designated area.”
National Programme Coordinator of the SAPZ, Dr Kabir Yusuf, said the proposed partnership “will address energy supply, which is one of the most critical challenges confronting the successful implementation of the programme across the country.”
