Political psychologist and campaign strategist Valentin Bianki has launched the English version of his book, Politics in Nigeria: Elites and Voters, providing a data-driven assessment of voter behaviour, electoral rivalry and the structure of political power as the country heads towards the 2027 general elections.
The 292-page book, published by Fortis Press, was presented at the Shehu Musa Yar’Adua Centre in Abuja at a public forum focused on lessons from the 2023 polls and emerging trends ahead of the next electoral cycle. The conversation centered on democratic competition, voter mobilization, regional balance and how political power is shifting.
Backed by more than 550 references and original research, the publication reviews the 2023 general elections, the first two years of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration, and the pattern of elite recruitment in Nigeria.
Bianki said Nigeria’s democracy should be judged by how competitive its elections are and whether challengers can genuinely contest entrenched structures. In his assessment, the 2023 presidential poll was the most open race since the return to civil rule in 1999.
The book notes that President Tinubu secured victory with 36.6 percent of votes cast – the smallest winning margin in any presidential election since 1999. It describes the contest as highly competitive, with four leading candidates commanding strong support in different regions of the country.
One of its major revelations questions the link between online popularity and actual votes. The analysis of 5.9 million Twitter accounts and 2.3 million tweets showed that although Peter Obi led the digital conversation during the campaign, that online dominance failed to convert into outright electoral victory. The study attributes this gap to factors such as voter turnout, uneven geographic spread of support, and the resilience of established party structures.
The book also examines how votes, appointments and resources intersect. Drawing on data on ministerial appointments since 2010, it finds a connection between the level of electoral backing a presidential candidate receives from a geopolitical zone and the cabinet slots allocated to that zone. A similar link was found between cabinet representation and federal transfers to regions, with the South-South excluded from that particular comparison.
On regional shifts, the research highlights that after the 2023 elections, the North-West’s share of ministerial positions dropped from 27 percent to 19 percent, while its share of federal transfers fell from 16 percent to 14 percent.
Another trend identified is a generational change in leadership. The average year of birth of ministers serving in President Tinubu’s cabinet is 1966, compared to 1957 under former Presidents Goodluck Jonathan and Muhammadu Buhari. Ministers born after 1971 now make up 20 percent of the cabinet, up from just three percent previously.
Ahead of 2027, Bianki argued that opposition parties will need more than public discontent to win. He stressed that building strong political organisations, forming broad coalitions and mobilising voters across the country will be decisive in determining the outcome.
